Anticipate the future - don’t just react to it.
Unparalleled expertise in scenario analysis, horizon scanning, and forecasting
Cut through noise, uncertainty, and hype. We help you identify what could happen, and what to do.
Our team includes award winners and the top 1% of forecasters in the world - measured, ranked, and publicly validated.
Open Nuclear Network
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Google DeepMind
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Open Philanthropy
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Department for Science, Innovation and Technology
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Metrea Aerospace
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AI Risk Mitigation Network
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CapX
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Financial Times
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Oxfordshire County Council
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Anthropic
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Open Nuclear Network 〇 Google DeepMind 〇 Open Philanthropy 〇 Department for Science, Innovation and Technology 〇 Metrea Aerospace 〇 AI Risk Mitigation Network 〇 CapX 〇 Financial Times 〇 Oxfordshire County Council 〇 Anthropic 〇
Benefits of scenario based forecasting
Forecasts are probabilistic - they estimate how likely different scenarios are.
This supports better planning, resource allocation, risk management, and decision making.
We apply data, structured reasoning, and the expertise of the top 1% of forecasters in the world - measured, ranked, and publicly validated - to estimate what is most likely to happen.
“What is the likelihood of frontier AI systems having ‘x’ capability within the next 2 years?”
“Which countries in Africa have above a 50% likelihood of a prolonged civil war or coup within the next 18 months?
“Will China blockade or undertake military action against Taiwan before the end of 2027?”
“What are the chances that quantum computing materially disrupts our industry within three years?”
“Will the UK Government meet its commitment to build 1.5 million new homes by 2029?”
“Will AI regulation be introduced keep pace with global competitors over the next two years?”
What about “What if’s”?
To inform the very specific scenarios, opportunities, and decisions you need to make, the Swift Centre specialises in conditional forecasting - helping you to answer the critical “what if?” questions.
Rather than predicting the future in general, it estimates outcomes based on a specific decision, policy, or strategic move that you or others may make. This enables you to robustly stress-test options and strategies.
“If there is a severe weather event, how likely is it that over 100,000 customers lose access to our services?”
“If an AI model exceeds 30% on CyBench’s cyber security capability benchmark, how many more cyber attacks will we face within 12 months?
The Swift Centre exists to help you cut through noise and uncertainty.
Whether you need sharper scenarios for resilience testing, or horizon scanning to shape long-term strategy, or trustworthy insights to inform prioritisation - we deliver clear, actionable, and decision relevant forecasts.
"If the US undertakes military action in Venezuela, will Chevron cease oil production/export there before 2027?”