The Audacity of Makerfield
On June 18, a former Cabinet minister and the most popular politician in Britain will ask the voters of a post-industrial Lancashire constituency to make him their MP. The request carries a weight…
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Public forecasts archive.
Every public forecast and analysis we have published, 2022 to 2026 — 45 pieces in all. Newer work also appears on our Substack, Swift Centre: Highlights.
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45 published analyses
2026 · 8 analyses
Polymarket vs Swift Centre: Round 2
The Signal and the Noise: Reviewing Our 2026 Polymarket Challenge In late January 2026, the Swift Centre identified several key geopolitical markets on Polymarket that appeared fundamentally…
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Is this the end of the Iran War? Europe is vulnerable to disruption
Last week we asked our forecasters to give us their forecasts on the ongoing war. Here are the results below. To read our full write-up, see it on UnHerd! Open the interactive chart ↗
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The Hormuz Chokehold: A Global Economy Exposed
Analysis produced by Alex Smith and Lisa Murillo Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly ceased since Israel and the U.S. first launched attacks on Iran on February 28. We will first…
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Bridge the Gap: Forecasts for AI Policy
In early February, the Swift Centre launched an open competition to bridge the persistent gap between AI forecasting and government action. Our goal was simple but ambitious: to support a new cohort…
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The Swift Centre AI Policy Challenge: Bridge the Gap Between Prediction and Action
The Swift Centre has launched an open competition to help bridge the gap between AI forecasting and government policy. We are looking for participants who want to take rigorous forecasts produced by…
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Polymarket vs Forecasting: Geopolitical Shifts in 2026
In a world defined by volatility and shifting geopolitical tides, decision-makers are increasingly desperate for a signal through the noise. Open platforms like Polymarket have positioned themselves…
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2026 - Year Ahead
Last week we asked our forecasters to give us their takes on the important things to pay attention to in the year ahead. See the article in full on the UnHerd website!
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2025 · 13 analyses
2025 - A Year in Review
For many, December is a time for reflection on the time gone by - what has the last year brought you, what challenges have you overcome or struggled with, and who do you know that deserves the best…
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China, Taiwan, and TSMC Risks to 2027
Illustration by James Daw If you have comments on this analysis, or would like to see these questions re-posed with different timeframes or conditional scenarios, please drop us a line at…
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Mind The Gap: The Critical Difference Between Likelihood and Impact
When assessing risks, likelihood (how probable an event is) and impact (how severe its consequences would be) often get blurred into a single metric, summarized in shorthand such as “low risk” or…
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Why Financial Institutions Need Structured Forecasting (Not Just Smart Analysts)
In March 2020, as COVID-19 began spreading beyond China, financial analysts believed markets would remain resilient. The prevailing view was that any economic disruption would be limited and…
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How close is a U.S. strike on Venezuela?
Illustration by James Daw Relations between the U.S. and Venezuela have sharply deteriorated in recent weeks, shifting from long-standing diplomatic and economic tensions to the edge of open military…
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AI Infrastructure Security - Stage 1 Report
7 Aug Introduction The AI Security project was designed to address a growing need in the field of AI governance: how to forecast progress in AI security in a way that is timely, decision-relevant…
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Could a winter blackout freeze the UK’s Financial Services?
Illustration by James Daw This article is also published on CapX Key takeaways A UK blackout lasting more than 24 hours before 2026 was estimated at 7.8% – a non-negligible risk with serious…
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Banking on stability?
Illustration by James Daw The Swift Centre’s world leading professional forecasters were asked to estimate the likelihood of three important events to US financial stability: Will a major U.S. bank…
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The gas consumption pipeline isn’t easily broken
Illustration by Paul Ward Natural gas production and consumption is enmeshed in the global economy at every level, from the macroeconomic to the hyperlocal. The fundamental dynamics of the industry…
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Escalation between Iran and Israel: Forecasts amid rapid developments
Over the past 24 hours, a serious escalation has unfolded between Iran and Israel, drawing global attention and fueling widespread uncertainty about what may come next. As the situation continues to…
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India-Pakistan conflict forecasts
Illustration by James Daw This week we did a flash forecast on the likelihood of escalation of the India-Pakistan conflict and potential ramifications. Here we have the straight forecasts along with…
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UK Ransomware forecasts - the rising risk and the need for more transparency
Illustration by James Daw The Swift forecasters were asked to predict the likely number of ransomware attacks on UK organisations in the coming months, including whether artificial intelligence would…
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Bird flu: Human pandemic unlikely, but will poultry and cattle industries take action?
Illustration by James Daw The forecasters were asked to predict whether the H5N1 bird flu virus, currently circulating in birds and in some non-human mammal species, will lead to a major human health…
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2024 · 4 analyses
A close Presidential Race: What does the path look like for the US post-election?
What does US policy change look like under each of the candidates?
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Swift Centre’s UK General Election Forecasts
Swift Centre’s forecasters provide their predictions for Thursday’s general election
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Global coal consumption will defy expectations
China and India, the world’s largest coal consumers, will consume much more coal than energy analysts predict
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Betting markets underestimate the chances of a Biden–Trump rematch
Expert forecasters say there is over a 90% chance Biden will be the Democrat nominee, while betting markets imply there is just a 75% chance Illustration by Laurel Molly, © All Rights Reserved Key…
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2023 · 13 analyses
Israel–Hamas war forecasting: Israel's simmering conflict with Hezbollah could easily intensify
Illustration by Laurel Molly, © All Rights Reserved Median scenario has Israel–Hezbollah fatalities between 500–1,000 in 5 months' time The US has conducted lethal airstrikes on Iranian forces 3.3%…
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How the Gaza war may escalate internationally
Illustration by Laurel Molly, © All Rights Reserved Israel-Hamas forecasting part 2 Overview of the next six months: 21% chance Israel launches a major missile or aerial attack on Iran 9% chance of a…
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Israel’s war on Hamas is set to eclipse all previous Arab-Israeli conflicts
Illustration by Laurel Molly, © All Rights Reserved Israel-Hamas forecasting part 1 Overview of the next six months: 61% chance there will be over 25,000 deaths in Gaza 20% chance Hamas retains de…
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Is Serbia about to invade Kosovo?
Illustration by Laurel Molly, © All Rights Reserved A couple of hours after midnight on September 24th, three police vehicles arrived to investigate a couple of trucks without license plates blocking…
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El Niño: how severe will the floods, fires, and famines be?
Illustration by Laurel Molly, © All Rights Reserved El Niño is here. A climate pattern that cyclically but unpredictably develops in the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean every two to seven years, El…
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Will Israel's judicial reforms be rejected?
Illustration by Laurel Molly, © All Rights Reserved Since the beginning of the year, Israel has been experiencing waves of protests against proposed judicial reforms, with hundreds of thousands…
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The outlook after the mutiny
Illustration by Laurel Molly, © All Rights Reserved In late June, the Wagner Group, a Russian mercenary force led by oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, mutinied against the Russian military. Wagner forces…
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Live forecasting: Wagner mutiny
Russian officials have accused Wagner Group of staging a mutiny, with some calling it an attempted coup. What happens next? Monday 26 June 0700 UTC With the situation somewhat stabilised, we'll…
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Will the US economy enter stagflation?
Key forecasts: US stagflation (unemployment over 5.5%, CPI over 4%, and GDP growth below 1.5% for 2 consecutive quarters) by the end of 2024: 14% Oil price shock deemed a key factor. WTI oil…
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Electoral interference, inflation and military coups: forecasting the Turkish presidential election and its consequences
Turkey's presidential and parliamentary elections, set to take place on Sunday, could be the most consequential of the year. The nation's democracy is deeply flawed, with concerns that it may slide…
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Donald Trump’s renomination chances
Last week, Swift forecasters got together to discuss Donald Trump's chances of securing the Republican nomination, and how the legal cases against him might change their outlook. We're sharing our…
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Forecasting Britain’s life expectancy
A baby born in 1980s Britain could expect to live into their mid-70s, placing the UK in the middle of the pack among 12 similar Western European countries. However, UK life expectancy stagnated in…
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Avian flu outbreak risks in 2023
Fears of a bird flu pandemic have been growing. Some influenza viruses are endemic in humans, but while those strains of the virus come and go, causing significant waves of illness and death in flu…
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2022 · 7 analyses
The consequences of Russia using a nuclear weapon
Forecasted military consequences within 90 days of Russia using a nuclear weapon in the next six months: A NATO country offensively entering Ukraine/Ukrainian airspace: 58% NATO countries sinking…
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Under what circumstances would Russia use a nuclear weapon?
If Ukraine takes control of Crimea? If the US supplies long-range missiles? If the Russians are driven from Ukraine entirely? Ukrainian forces have recently retaken much of the ground that was…
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Biden's re-election chances
What are the factors that determine Biden’s chances in the 2024 presidential election? Key forecasts Probability Joe Biden will be elected president of the United States in the 2024 US presidential…
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Monkeypox outlook — update
Median scenario: Monkeypox cases in the USA and UK to grow into 2023, but likely to remain mostly confined to the MSM community Globally, low vaccine availability and poor reporting will contribute…
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Consequences of Russia cutting off the gas this winter
Even if the gas stays on, Germany should expect a harsh winter, and a worse one if it doesn’t Short term gas shutdowns will likely lead to recession, increased risk of domestic power cuts and the…
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Key forecasts: Risk of use of chemical or biological weapons in the next 12 months: 12% Likelihood of ceasefire by end of year: 21% Risk of event involving 25 fatalities inside NATO member territory…
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Monkeypox: the outlook for 2022
The last thing the world wanted to hear, as it started to put the two years of the pandemic behind it, was that a new infectious disease was spreading unexpectedly. That is, however, what happened…
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